译文:
China’s affinity for gambling and luxury goods has made those two consumer sectors the best performing in terms of revenue growth, and CLSA believes that trend is likely to continue in light of the barriers to entry for both industries.
Gambling revenue is expected to grow 45% this year and average 17% over the next nine years, according to Aaron Fischer, CLSA’s head of consumer and gaming research. The brokerage has “buy” ratings for all six operators—Galaxy Entertainment, Melco Crown, MGM China, Sands China, SJM Holdings and Wynn Macau—and expects their shares to rise between 59% and 108% in the next 12 months.
The government restricts the supply of new casinos among the six operators. “For those companies that have casino licenses, we think it’s like a license to print money,” Fischer said on Wednesday during a presentation at CLSA’s investor forum. “You have all this huge pent-up demand for gaming [in China] that’s all funneled to just one point.”
Sheldon Adelson’s Sands China plans to open a much-delayed, $4 billion casino resort in Macau’s Cotai area, known as sites 5 and 6, early next year. Galaxy Entertainment, controlled by the Hong Kong billionaire Lui Che Woo, opened the $2 billion casino resort Galaxy Macau in May this year.
Wynn Macau, SJM and MGM China are all seeking permission to build casino resorts in the same area. The Cotai Strip has been developing into Macau’s entertainment center, whereas the hardcore VIP gamblers are more likely to be found at the casinos on the main peninsula of the former Portuguese colony.
On the luxury side, Fischer said Chinese companies won’t be able to develop domestic brands on the same level as the likes of Louis Vuitton, Hermes and Chanel, which are all very exclusive and have a heritage that dates back over 100 years.
CLSA expects Chinese demand to drive growth for the global luxury market over the next decade. Greater China, which includes China, Hong Kong and Macau, currently accounts for 15% of the total market when taking into account spending domestically as well as overseas, but Fischer forecasts that will rise to 44% in the next ten years. |